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June 05, 2023

Potential 2012 Election Outcomes, Part 3, Continued Uncertainty

We have made it clear that two possible ways for the November elections to end is for either Republicans or Democrats to have total control over Congress and the Presidency. However, the most likely result is our third potential outcome: continued mixed government and uncertainty.

Based on voting predictions as of April, President Barack Obama is expected to defeat challenger Mitt Romney and take the Presidency for the Democrats.

The House is up for grabs. Based on the various Congressional districts, either party could easily come out of the November 6th Election Day with the majority in the House.

However, the Senate is where the trouble lies. Currently Democrats lead the Senate 53-47. 23 Democratic seats and 10 Republicans seats are up for election this year. That means for Republicans to assert dominance and get 60 seats, they will need to win 23 of the 33 races. For Democrats to get to 60 seats, they will need to win 30 of the 33 races. Neither seems very likely and the Senate is where we are almost guaranteed to see neither party come out strong.

In turn, we are likely going to see more gridlock and more vital pieces of legislation go contested and not pass. We are likely to see more Republican games as they will likely wait till the last possible second to sign legislation. We are going to see a lot of uncertainty over how much of a proposed bill will be in tact when it is finally up for vote. Unless one party does assert dominance, we are in for another stressful two years.

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